The 3 reasons why mortgage rates won’t drop this Spring

Hint: It’s the economy!


Dear Clients and Friends,

In today’s dynamic real estate market, understanding the trajectory of mortgage rates is crucial for anyone looking to buy a home or refinance their mortgage. Here is why we believe mortgage rates won’t see a decrease until at least the third quarter of this year.

The Backbone of Current Mortgage Rates

Before diving into the heart of the matter, it’s important to grasp the relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. The federal government aims for a 2% inflation target to ensure economic stability. However, with inflation persisting above this goal, mainly hovering around 3%, the pressure is on to bring these numbers down. This stubborn percentage point plays a pivotal role in the government’s hesitancy to lower the federal funds rate, which, in turn, influences mortgage rates.

Three Key Reasons Behind Steady Mortgage Rates

  1. Historically Low Unemployment: A strong indicator of a robust economy is low unemployment rates. With more people employed, consumer spending increases, further heating the economy. This environment discourages the lowering of mortgage rates as it could fuel inflation further.
  2. Consumer Spending: The heart of the American economy is consumer spending. As long as Americans continue to purchase goods and services, the economy expands. This ongoing expansion is another factor that keeps mortgage rates from decreasing.
  3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE): This index, which tracks inflation and includes real estate among its significant contributors, currently sits at about 2.5%. With real estate prices continuing to appreciate, it exerts upward pressure on inflation, challenging the federal target and influencing mortgage rates.

Real Estate’s Role and Your Next Steps

Real estate’s appreciation significantly impacts the PCE, and consequently, inflation. This sector’s growth requires other areas to contract more significantly to achieve the federal government’s inflation targets. This intricate balance keeps inflation slightly elevated, which, in turn, affects the timing of any potential decrease in mortgage rates.

Economics can be a dense subject, but it’s fascinating to see how interconnected factors influence our housing market decisions. If you’re pondering over how these insights impact your specific situation or have more questions, we’re here to delve deeper into these topics with you.

In conclusion, while we navigate these economic waters together, it’s vital to stay informed and prepared. Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady until the latter part of the year. But worry not; we are here to guide you through every step, ensuring you make the best decisions for your home and future.

How Can We Help You?


Free Home Price Estimate


Schedule a Call


Have a question for Peter?


Have a question for TCG?

Peter Chabris

Licensed in 2002, Peter launched The Chabris Group in 2007, which has earned the title of Cincinnati’s #1 real estate sales team since 2013. The team serves several hundred families every year and is recognized as the top sales team in Keller Williams’ Ohio Valley Region.